Loans & Finances Today

Spinouts, because of the nature of their assets, the make up of their shareholders and the academic (rather than business) background of their managers, face particular problems in becoming successful enterprises. Some would say that their track record in overcoming these problems has not been good.

The problems we have identified in this article centre on capital-raising and achieving a successful exit, and the reasons we have suggested for the problems are lack of management expertise, confusion over the value of IP, inability to attract funding from investor institutions and inability to maintain sound relations with their investors.

Some universities, notably Oxford, Cambridge and Imperial College, appear to have been more successful with their spinouts than others in both capital raising and successful exits (and, probably, by other measures also, such as income and employment generation), but even they appear to lag behind the more successful American universities.

If you can identify manufacturers who already have the distribution channels in place and your product would be a logical extension to their existing line of products, it will be a simple matter for them to add your product. In other words, these manufacturers already have shelf space in most or all of the retail outlets that would normally be expected to carry a product such as yours. The simpler it is for the manufacturers, the more likely they will be to give serious consideration to your product for licensing. Manufacturers like to license products for which they already have allotted shelf space in the stores. They can simply remove one of their slow selling existing products and replace it with your new, exciting and potentially good selling invention.

Some independent product developers (i.e. inventors) target specific manufacturers and deliberately develop products that fit into their existing product line. This helps to maximize the inventor’s chances of success because he is staying within his “comfort zone” with products with which he is familiar.

In simple terms, your portfolio should reflect your personality as a saver, investor, and speculator. Pure savers will want all their money in savings instruments, pure investors will want it all in investments, and pure speculators will want it all in speculations. Most of you, however, will want to have some money in two or all three types of investments. The only way to determine amounts is to watch how different ratios affect your emotions.

For example, retirees are sometimes advised to have five years of living expenses in savings instruments. They can then place the rest of their money in investments and speculations. However, many retirees are unhappy with the low returns from savings instruments. Being more investors than savers, they will cut down to one year or even a few months of savings instruments and put the rest in investments. This will increase both their returns and happiness.

Other retirees will not want anything in investments. They will only be comfortable with everything in savings. While they may start retirement with five years of savings, eventually they will have twice their life expectancy in savings.

Anything sold as a limited partnership is a speculation. As a limited partner, you give up the right to control the investment and pay huge fees to those who do control the investment.

Limited partnerships work as fun money. Stage plays and movies are funded through limited partnerships. Returns are unpredictable and far more often negative than positive. Based on figures cited in the June 18, 2001 issue of Barron’s, more than 80 percent of the time, you lose every penny invested. Nevertheless, you do get to meet the stars, attend at opening night, secure seats for friends and family, and brag about an occasional hit.

Limited partnerships are also used to sell interests in airplanes, ships, train cars, heavy machinery, or any asset that requires a large capital investment. Overconfidence, again, is your enemy. The promoters will show you how valuable the asset is, how it will be leased or sold at a profit to a highly secure and profitable end user, and how reasonable their fees are for the service they are providing. You will have to qualify as an investor and will be told that you are one of a select group of individuals being offered this special deal for a limited time only. Once your ego has calmed down, you must ask: If this is such a great investment, why didn’t the users just get a bank loan and buy it themselves? In fact, why didn’t the promoters just get a bank loan and buy it themselves?

Remember, anything sold as a limited partnership is a speculation. Solid real estate, sold as limited partnerships, resulted in huge losses a few years back. Investors compatible with real estate were not compatible with RELPs. The packaging of any investment can affect its emotional impact on you. In the next chapter, we will look at packaging and other aspects of form that affect you even though the substance of the investment may otherwise be within your comfort zone.

Undeveloped land is for optimists. The idea is to buy the land, do absolutely nothing, and then cash out at a huge profit.

Overconfidence is an issue. The factors that will increase or decrease the value of your land are not predictable. Raw land has many uses or none.

The person who sold it to you knew more about the prospects than you do and he wanted out. The Realtor wanted you in as she collected a nice commission.

Laziness is another issue. Extensive research is required to prevent a huge loss. Land in a flood zone or on a fault line may be worthless. Welllocated land that cannot be subdivided into marketable lots has no value.

Environmental contamination has ruined millions of acres. Even if your land has none of these problems, you are powerless over the factors that will increase the value of your dirt. Cities grow in unpredictable directions and fall into recessions, depressions, even ghost towns. Vacation spots are hot and cold. Farm uses are not predictable. Meanwhile, taxes must be paid and assessments can come without warning. In addition, you have to keep the mortgage current, if you were able to find one.

Currently, farmland is of interest because the returns are not correlated to the returns on U.S. stocks. Watch for overconfidence. Lack of correlation with U.S. stocks is only a good thing if returns are at least as high as inflation.

Many speculators currently believe that farmland, crops, and livestock are about to turn up for a sustained period. They argue that farmland is disappearing at a rate of a million acres a year as the cities and population grow. Demand will increase and supply will dwindle. However, other speculators are selling out. They believe that supply will grow faster than demand as agricultural technology improves and cheap imports flood the market.

They also see farm profits being squeezed. On one side, high-tech seeds are becoming more expensive, energy costs are rising, and fertilizers are more expensive. On the other side, processors and consumers pay lower prices and a fluctuating dollar hurts overseas sales.

No one knows for sure how this speculation will work out. That is why it is a speculation. Historically, overconfident speculators have lost on farms.