Loans & Finances Today

Spinouts, because of the nature of their assets, the make up of their shareholders and the academic (rather than business) background of their managers, face particular problems in becoming successful enterprises. Some would say that their track record in overcoming these problems has not been good.

The problems we have identified in this article centre on capital-raising and achieving a successful exit, and the reasons we have suggested for the problems are lack of management expertise, confusion over the value of IP, inability to attract funding from investor institutions and inability to maintain sound relations with their investors.

Some universities, notably Oxford, Cambridge and Imperial College, appear to have been more successful with their spinouts than others in both capital raising and successful exits (and, probably, by other measures also, such as income and employment generation), but even they appear to lag behind the more successful American universities.

Currently, farmland is of interest because the returns are not correlated to the returns on U.S. stocks. Watch for overconfidence. Lack of correlation with U.S. stocks is only a good thing if returns are at least as high as inflation.

Many speculators currently believe that farmland, crops, and livestock are about to turn up for a sustained period. They argue that farmland is disappearing at a rate of a million acres a year as the cities and population grow. Demand will increase and supply will dwindle. However, other speculators are selling out. They believe that supply will grow faster than demand as agricultural technology improves and cheap imports flood the market.

They also see farm profits being squeezed. On one side, high-tech seeds are becoming more expensive, energy costs are rising, and fertilizers are more expensive. On the other side, processors and consumers pay lower prices and a fluctuating dollar hurts overseas sales.

No one knows for sure how this speculation will work out. That is why it is a speculation. Historically, overconfident speculators have lost on farms.